Last week, Lyft became the showtime of the ride sharing companies to denote plans for an initial world officering, filing its I tried to value Uber and failed spectacularly inward forecasting how much in addition to how speedily ride sharing would alter the confront of automobile service to a greater extent than or less the world. I make got since returned multiple times to the scene of my crime, in addition to spell I am non certain that I make got learned rattling much along the way, I make got tried to correct size my thinking on this business. You tin live on the guess equally pick out my experiences to play inward my valuation of Lyft, ahead of its IPO pricing.
The Rise of Ride Sharing
The ride sharing business, equally nosotros know it, traces its roots dorsum to the Bay Area, with the founding of Uber, Sidecar in addition to Lyft providing the commutation impetus, in addition to its demeanor on on the automobile service problem organisation has been immense. In a post inward 2015, I traced out the increment of ride sharing in addition to the ripple effects it has had on the automobile service condition quo, noting that revenues for ride sharing companies make got climbed, the cost of a my 2015 post, I argued that the depression upper-case missive of the alphabet intensity (where ride sharing companies don't invest inward cars) in addition to the independent contractor model (where drivers are non employees), which made increment thence easy, too conspired to arrive hard for these companies to gain economies of scale or remain away from cutting pharynx competition.
The Playing Field
In 2015, I argued, with natural language alone one-half inward cheek, that i possible model for the ride sharing companies to prepare sustainable businesses was the Mafia's generally successful examine to halt intrafamily warfare inward the 1930s yesteryear dividing upwards New York metropolis with 5 families, giving each menage unit of measurement its ain fiefdom to exploit. (I prefer The Godfather version.). While that may make got seemed similar an outlandish comparing inward 2015, it is interesting that inward the years since, Uber has extricated itself from China, leaving that marketplace position to Didi, inward provide for a 20% stake inward the fellowship in addition to thence from South East Asia, inward provide for a portion of GrabTaxi. In fact, the U.S. of A. of America may live on the virtually competitive ride sharing marketplace position inward the world, with Uber in addition to Lyft going head-to-head inward virtually cities.
While Uber in addition to Lyft are ride sharing companies, their development over the terminal decade offers a fascinating contrast inward problem organisation models, for immature companies. In a postal service inward 2015, I drew the contrast betwixt the 2 companies, equally a prelude to valuing them. Uber was the "big story" company, telling investors that it wanted to live on inward all things logistics, expanding into delivery in addition to moving, in addition to all over the world. Lyft was the "focused story" company, setting itself apart from Uber yesteryear keeping its problem organisation inward the U.S. of A. of America in addition to staying with automobile service, equally its primary business. I argued inward 2015, that given how the 2 companies were priced, I would rather live on an investor inward Lyft than Uber.
In the iv years since the post, nosotros make got seen the consequences for both companies. While Uber's bigger even out gained it a much higher pricing from investors, it has too brought the fellowship a whole host of troubles, ranging from beingness a target for regulators to management over reach. Travis Kalanick, its high profile CEO, left the fellowship inward a messy in addition to world divorce, in addition to Dara Khosrowshahi, who replaced him, has scaled Uber's ambitions down, showtime globally yesteryear getting out of mainland People's Republic of China in addition to Southeast Asia, where it was burning through cash at an exponential rate, in addition to thence inside the logistics business, yesteryear focusing on Uber Delivery equally the commutation add together on to automobile service. Lyft has stayed truthful to its US in addition to automobile service focus, in addition to it has paid off inward a Kabuki valuation, where they volition acquire through the motions of estimating valuation inputs, when the ending release has been pre-decided.
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